An analytical review for foreign entrepreneurs, investors and companies that operate in Türkiye or are considering entering the Turkish market. Data as of 9 October 2026.
In brief
- On 17 September, Türkiye’s Capital Markets Board (SPK) ordered the liquidation of 17 funds managed by A1 Capital, Bulls and Pardus Portföy; since 8 October, Ziraat Bankası has been transferring payouts to 43,643 investors.
- The ruling AK Parti is preparing a bill to settle payouts to 455,578 investors of seven asset managers; as of 9 October it was a proposal, not law.
- According to MKK, foreign investors’ holdings in Turkish investment funds fell in September from $11.1 billion to $5 billion (−55%); central bank (TCMB) gross reserves dropped by $3.8 billion in the week to 2 October, to $167.8 billion.
- The İSO export climate index rose to 53.2 in September, the highest reading since May 2022.
- Risks for companies: a court-supervised debt restructuring (konkordato) at a Bursa fabric supplier to Zara and H&M, the EU–China trade dispute, tension around Iran and Brent crude near $104.
This review continues our coverage of the Borsa İstanbul investment fund crisis and Doing business in Türkiye in October 2026: new rules for foreign companies.
The Turkish economy is entering the final quarter of 2026 amid growing uncertainty in financial markets, shifts in investor behaviour and mounting pressure on some industries. The picture is mixed: while foreign holdings in investment funds and central bank reserves are shrinking, external demand for Turkish goods keeps improving.
The crisis in the investment fund market, which has affected hundreds of thousands of retail investors, stands out. The authorities are preparing legislation to deal with its consequences, and payouts from some liquidated funds have already begun. At the same time, data from Türkiye’s Central Securities Depository show a sharp fall in the value of foreign investors’ portfolios.
For companies doing business with Türkiye, these events matter far beyond stock prices. They affect trust in financial institutions, access to capital, payment discipline, investment decisions and the resilience of business partners.
Further uncertainty comes from abroad: EU–China trade frictions, tension around Iran, changes in global logistics and the spread of artificial intelligence are gradually reshaping international competition. Turkish industry, meanwhile, still has room to grow exports, and technology is creating new tools for efficiency.
The key question for foreign companies is not only whether Türkiye remains attractive, but how to assess risk, choose partners and build a financial strategy in a changing environment.
What is happening with Türkiye’s investment fund crisis?
Short answer: 17 funds of three asset managers have been liquidated and payouts started on 8 October, while a broader bill covering 455,578 investors is being prepared.
According to the Aposto Gündem digest of 9 October, Türkiye’s Capital Markets Board (Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu, SPK) decided on 17 September to liquidate 17 investment funds managed by A1 Capital, Bulls and Pardus Portföy. By early October the liquidation procedures were complete, and from 8 October Ziraat Bankası began transferring money to investors through their bank and brokerage accounts in the Takasbank system.
In total, 43,643 investors are involved. Of the 17 funds, four were managed by A1 Capital, three by Bulls and ten by Pardus Portföy.
This procedure is only part of a wider crisis. According to Turkish media, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) is preparing a bill to settle payouts to 455,578 investors and the liquidation of seven asset management companies. The ten-article draft was due to be submitted to parliament on 9 October. At the time of the source report, it was a legislative initiative, not a law in force.
How are investors expected to be compensated?
The preliminary scheme envisages staged payouts. In the first stage, claims of roughly 351,000–355,000 investors with holdings below one million Turkish lira would be handled. Compensation would be based on the original amount invested, indexed to average TEFE-TÜFE price indicators.
This detail matters: returning a nominal sum and returning an inflation-adjusted sum have very different economic value. With Turkish inflation, an investor who gets the original capital back after a long delay can lose much of its purchasing power. The proposed indexation is meant to address this, but the final formula will depend on the law as adopted. Holdings above one million lira would be handled in later stages.
The bill is expected to be debated in parliament’s Planning and Budget Committee before going to the plenary.
Why does the fund crisis matter for foreign business?
Türkiye’s investment fund market is part of the financial plumbing that channels capital into government bonds, equities, money-market instruments and other assets. Its reliability matters to a foreign entrepreneur even if the company never invests in funds.
First, financial shocks can change local investors’ appetite for risk. When trust in certain products falls, money may move into bank deposits, foreign currency, gold or other instruments. Second, stress in financial markets can affect companies’ access to funding: investors grow more cautious and lenders may tighten requirements for borrowers and counterparties. Third, such events raise the importance of legal due diligence on financial products and intermediaries.
A licence held by an asset manager does not by itself mean that every product it offers is protected from losses or operational risk. Foreign investors should separately assess a fund’s structure, investment strategy, redemption terms, asset custody and liquidation mechanism. It is especially important to distinguish bank deposits, money-market funds and other short-term placements: similar yields and liquidity do not mean the same level of capital protection.
The political and legal side of the crisis
The fund crisis has also become a subject of dispute in parliament. The opposition İYİ Parti proposed a parliamentary inquiry into alleged capital market manipulation, investor losses and the possible responsibility of state institutions. The proposal was rejected by votes of AK Parti and MHP, whose representatives said investigations were already under way by the judiciary and the State Supervisory Council.
Allegations have also surfaced in the political arena about financial transactions involving certain officials and their family members. The ministers named in those statements have denied them. Such public statements are not proof of wrongdoing; their legal assessment lies with the competent authorities.
For the business environment, what matters most is the regulators’ ability to ensure a transparent investigation, consistent enforcement and a clear procedure for protecting investors. How effectively the crisis is resolved may shape private and institutional confidence in the Turkish financial market.
Did foreign investors cut their Turkish fund portfolios by 55%?
Short answer: the value of their holdings fell by 55% in September, but that is not the same as $6.1 billion of capital leaving the country.
Data from Türkiye’s Central Securities Depository (Merkezi Kayıt Kuruluşu, MKK), quoted in the digest, show that the total value of foreign investors’ holdings in Turkish investment funds fell from $11.1 billion to $5 billion in September 2026.
| Period | Foreign holdings in Turkish funds |
|---|---|
| Before the decline | $11.1 bn |
| September 2026 | $5.0 bn |
| Change in one month | −55% |
Source: MKK, data cited in Aposto Gündem, 9 October 2026.
The change is significant, but it needs careful reading. A lower portfolio value does not necessarily mean that foreign investors pulled $6.1 billion out of Türkiye in cash or through asset sales. The figure may reflect a mix of unit redemptions, changes in asset prices, currency revaluation, the liquidation of individual funds and portfolio reallocation. Without detailed net flow statistics, it is impossible to say how much of the decline was actual withdrawal. Still, the scale deserves attention.
Why is foreign capital becoming more cautious?
Foreign investors judge the Turkish market on several parameters at once. The first is the return on financial instruments: high nominal interest rates can attract capital, especially into short-term lira instruments. The second is currency risk: if the lira weakens against the dollar or euro, a lira return does not necessarily mean a positive result for a foreign investor. The third is liquidity: international managers need not only to enter an investment but to exit within a predictable time and without excessive losses. The fourth is regulatory stability: rule changes, investigations and uncertainty around specific products can raise the risk premium investors demand.
In Türkiye all these factors must be weighed together. A fund may post a positive return in lira, yet the result in dollars can be much lower. For a company that earns revenue and pays costs in lira, the same instrument may look entirely different. There is no universal answer to whether holding capital in Turkish instruments pays off.
A decline in derivatives activity
Another indicator concerns foreign investors’ transactions with Turkish banks. In the week to 2 October, total lira-linked derivatives positions fell by $2.5 billion to $56.6 billion, the lowest level since July 2026.
These instruments serve many purposes, including currency hedging, liquidity management and investment strategies, so a decline should not automatically be read as capital flight. Together with the drop in foreign fund holdings, however, it suggests that international investment activity needs closer monitoring. The practical point for companies in Türkiye: changes in financial investors’ behaviour can affect the currency market, the cost of funding and banking terms.
Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye reserves fell by $3.8 billion
The financial position of the Central Bank (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası, TCMB) also drew attention in early October. In the week to 2 October, its gross international reserves fell by $3.8 billion to $167.8 billion, while different reserve measures moved in different directions.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Gross international reserves | $167.8 bn |
| Weekly change | −$3.8 bn |
| Net international reserves | $53.8 bn |
| Change in net reserves | +$410 mn |
| Net reserves excluding swaps | $37.9 bn |
| Change in reserves excluding swaps | −$2.0 bn |
Week ending 2 October 2026. Source: TCMB, data cited in Aposto Gündem.
The differences between these measures are fundamental. Gross reserves show the central bank’s total reserve assets; net reserves account for related liabilities; the figure excluding swaps also removes the effect of certain foreign-currency liquidity swaps. A change in gross reserves alone does not give a full picture of the regulator’s currency position.
What does this mean for the Turkish lira?
Reserves help the central bank meet international obligations, manage liquidity and respond to sharp moves in the currency market. But a weekly fall in reserves does not automatically mean a weaker lira. The exchange rate is driven by interest rates, inflation expectations, the trade balance, capital flows, central bank policy and global financial conditions.
In the market summary of 9 October, USD/TRY stood at about 49.34. That figure refers to a specific trading period and should not be used as the current rate for future calculations. For businesses, it matters far more to build currency changes into financial planning than to forecast the rate from a single headline.
How should foreign companies manage currency risk in Türkiye?
A business that buys goods in dollars, sells them in lira and pays local costs in lira faces a very different risk profile from an exporter earning euros. Companies with long delivery cycles are particularly exposed.
Suppose a foreign supplier agreed the price of equipment in dollars, and the Turkish buyer set its end price in lira. Months may pass between signing the contract, paying the supplier, customs clearance and receiving money from the client, and currency moves over that period can significantly change the margin.
When planning operations in Türkiye, it makes sense to agree in advance the currency of obligations, price review clauses, payment terms and acceptable currency deviation. Companies with regular international payments should also review the bank hedging tools available to them, taking into account their cost and any restrictions.
Borsa İstanbul: industry gains while banks are under pressure
Against this backdrop, the BIST 100 index closed the session of 8 October up 0.75% at about 12,214 points, with turnover of 105.6 billion lira. One positive day does not change a more complex trend: according to Aposto Gündem, the index was down 0.29% over the week and 15.21% over the month, while still up 8.45% since the start of the year.
The sector split is telling. The BIST Industrials index rose 1.75%, BIST Mining gained 3%, and BIST Financials fell 0.70%. Market participants clearly see different prospects for different industries.
For a foreign investor, this means the headline index does not always reflect the position of a particular business. An export-oriented manufacturer may benefit from stronger foreign demand, while a financial institution is more sensitive to interest rates, the cost of capital and domestic credit conditions. When valuing Turkish assets, look beyond market capitalisation at debt load, the currency structure of liabilities, the stability of operating profit and the ability to generate cash flow.
Is external demand for Turkish exports improving?
Short answer: yes. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (İstanbul Sanayi Odası, İSO) export climate index rose from 52.7 to 53.2 in September 2026, the highest since May 2022.
| Period | İSO export climate index |
|---|---|
| Previous month | 52.7 |
| September 2026 | 53.2 |
| Growth threshold | 50 points |
A value above 50 signals improving demand conditions.
The index has stayed above the neutral 50 mark since January 2024, and September was the fifth consecutive month of improving demand in Turkish exporters’ main foreign markets.
Why this indicator matters more than it seems
The export climate reflects business conditions in the countries that buy Turkish goods. It does not directly measure Turkish exports in dollars, but it shows how favourable the external environment is becoming for manufacturers. A rising index can mean better conditions for new orders, capacity utilisation and international sales.
There is, however, a lag between stronger foreign activity and actual shipments: companies first receive enquiries, agree prices, sign contracts and buy materials, and only then ship. The improvement should be read as a positive leading signal, not a guarantee of higher export revenue.
Opportunities for foreign companies
Türkiye holds an important place in international production chains thanks to its industrial base, location and trade links with European and Middle Eastern markets. Stronger external demand can open several commercial opportunities:
- suppliers of raw materials, components and production equipment can study the needs of Turkish exporters planning to expand capacity;
- international distributors can consider Turkish manufacturers as suppliers for their own markets;
- foreign brands planning contract manufacturing can assess placing orders with Turkish factories.
Sectors where Türkiye already has developed capacity are especially interesting: textiles, machinery, automotive components, household appliances, chemicals and building materials. A better export climate does not mean production in Türkiye is getting cheaper, though. Any decision to place production should weigh labour, energy, raw materials, logistics, currency risk and customs terms for delivery to the final market.
Turkish textiles: financial strain reaches suppliers of global brands
Even as foreign demand improves, some Turkish manufacturers face financial difficulties. A telling example is Bursa Knitted Fabric, a knitted fabric producer from Bursa that has operated for more than twenty years and makes over 500 types of fabric. The company has applied for court protection under the konkordato procedure.
According to published information, it supplied fabrics to international and Turkish brands including Zara, H&M, DeFacto, Mavi and LC Waikiki. On 1 October, the Bursa 3rd Commercial Court of First Instance granted it a temporary three-month protection period and appointed three interim commissioners to oversee the process. A hearing on a definitive period is scheduled for 16 December.
What is konkordato in Türkiye?
Konkordato is a court-supervised debt restructuring procedure under Turkish law. It is designed for companies that struggle to meet their financial obligations and seek to agree a repayment plan with creditors. Within certain limits, it protects the debtor from enforcement and allows it to keep operating while preparing a financial plan.
Applying for konkordato is not the same as bankruptcy: the company can continue production, fulfil orders and try to restore solvency. For suppliers, buyers and creditors, however, it is a significant signal of financial risk.
Why textile makers’ problems matter for international business
Turkish textiles are deeply integrated into international supply chains, and many foreign brands use Turkish factories for fabrics, garments and accessories. If a supplier runs into financial trouble, buyers as well as creditors can be affected: delivery delays, changed production schedules, restricted raw material purchases and the need to find alternative producers.
For a foreign company placing orders in Türkiye, this means assessing a supplier’s financial resilience, not only its production capability. This matters most with large advance payments: if the buyer pays a significant sum before production starts, the supplier’s financial problems can complicate refunds or contract performance.
How to check a Turkish manufacturer
Before signing long-term contracts, review the company’s legal status, registration details, financial statements where available and any court proceedings. Useful sources include notices in the Türkiye Ticaret Sicili Gazetesi (Trade Registry Gazette), official registers and documents provided by the counterparty.
Assess real production capacity too. A well-known international brand on the client list does not guarantee sufficient liquidity or the ability to deliver a new order on time. For large orders, consider staged payments, production inspections, clear acceptance terms and contractual remedies for delays.
The EU and China: new trade restrictions could change competition
International trade policy is another factor for Turkish producers. In October, the EU continued talks with China on car trade: EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič held talks in Beijing with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. According to Aposto Gündem, the EU is seeking limits on Chinese car exports and better access for European companies to the Chinese market. After China declined to voluntarily cap hybrid car exports, the EU is considering additional duties on car imports above a certain volume. These are measures under discussion, not a restriction already in force.
Why this matters for Türkiye
Türkiye has a developed automotive industry and close production ties with Europe. Turkish firms make vehicles, components, electrical systems and industrial equipment, so changes in EU trade policy can affect the competitive position of suppliers to the EU. If the European market becomes less accessible to certain Chinese goods, demand may shift between suppliers. But it cannot be assumed that Turkish companies will win all the freed-up orders: technical standards, cost, capacity, rules of origin and customs procedures all matter.
The Türkiye–EU customs union covers much of the trade in industrial goods. Even so, a product imported into Türkiye from a third country does not automatically acquire Turkish origin. Companies considering Türkiye as a production or logistics base for supplying Europe must analyse the applicable rules of origin and trade defence measures.
What it means for foreign manufacturers
Companies from China, Europe and elsewhere may revise their production strategies depending on final decisions by trade regulators. Türkiye can be attractive for industrial cooperation, local assembly and serving European customers, but the business case depends on the product and the legal structure of operations. Genuine production localisation must not be confused with simple transit or re-documentation.
ASELSAN signs a new $195 million contract
Turkish defence technology company ASELSAN continues to expand its order book. According to information of 9 October, it signed an agreement with the Presidency of Defence Industries (Savunma Sanayii Başkanlığı) to supply radar systems, worth $195 million. This adds to earlier reports of new ASELSAN deals and shows continued demand for complex technology solutions.
Why the defence industry matters for civilian business
Defence technology firms create demand for a wide range of engineering and industrial skills. Radar systems require electronic components, specialised software, signal processing, precision engineering and sophisticated production infrastructure, and some of these capabilities have civilian uses in energy, transport, telecoms and manufacturing.
A defence contract does not automatically open doors for any foreign supplier: the sector is governed by special security, export control and technology access rules. For foreign companies, a more realistic path may be civilian industrial segments that use similar engineering solutions.
International companies cut staff: employment models are changing
October brought new reports of job cuts at large international companies. Amazon announced further reductions, mainly in its Stores division; Reuters sources put the figure at about 1,000 office staff in the US, UK and India, affecting customer support and seller services among others. Britain’s Royal Mail said it plans to cut 2,500 positions by the end of 2027, focusing on administrative, management and support roles rather than delivery staff and drivers.
How this relates to business in Türkiye
Cuts at global companies do not mean the Turkish labour market is deteriorating, but they reflect a broader review of operating costs and organisational models: raising productivity, removing duplicated functions and adopting digital tools. For foreign firms opening units in Türkiye, this means deciding early which functions really need permanent staff and which can be automated or outsourced, especially customer support, order processing, document workflow, financial reporting and marketing operations. Automation does not remove the need for local expertise: working with Turkish clients, authorities and partners requires the language, local business practice and knowledge of applicable law.
AI becomes a tool for operational efficiency
October’s technology news shows competition among AI developers shifting from showcasing capabilities to practical use and cost. The 9 October digest reported several launches: Google introduced the experimental Playground platform for creating games from text prompts and an updated image model, Nano Banana 2.1; Anthropic released Claude Haiku 5.5, aimed at classification, data processing, summaries and customer support; OpenAI added interactive elements to ChatGPT answers.
Why cheaper AI matters for business
The Claude Haiku 5.5 announcement states that it costs 75% less to use than the previous Haiku 4.5. For companies this may matter more than any new feature: when the cost per request falls, automation becomes viable for more everyday operations. An online store can pre-sort customer requests, a logistics firm can extract data from transport documents, a distributor can process multilingual commercial offers. Actual savings, however, depend on integration, quality control, infrastructure and staff involvement, not only on model price.
What to consider when deploying AI in Türkiye
Language localisation remains key. Turkish has its own grammar, terminology and business communication norms, so a system that handles English documents well may be less reliable with Turkish invoices, contracts or customer messages. Check AI output on financial and legal documents especially carefully: errors in amounts, dates, tax details and identifiers can cause operational problems. Using cloud systems to process personal data also requires an assessment of compliance with Türkiye’s data protection law, KVKK: where data is processed, who has access and what contractual safeguards apply.
New options for marketing and e-commerce
Cheaper visual content may help agencies, online stores and international brands test ad concepts faster, adapt materials for different markets and prepare product images. But cheaper content does not guarantee better advertising. In the Turkish market, what still decides results is the quality of the offer, the right audience, localised messaging and a convenient purchase process. AI can speed up production but does not replace research into consumer behaviour.
Cyber resilience: the incident at a Yandex data centre
One more item matters for companies that use Russian cloud services. According to Aposto Gündem, a fire broke out at a Yandex data centre after a drone attack near the town of Sasovo in Russia’s Ryazan region. The company reported damage to part of the infrastructure and a shutdown of the facility; the ru-central1-b cloud zone lost power, and part of the load was redirected to other zones. At the time of the report it was unclear whether the data centre was a direct target.
Why it matters for companies operating between Russia and Türkiye
Such incidents raise the question of digital business continuity. Companies may rely on cloud infrastructure for documents, CRM, order management, payment data and customer communication. If critical systems sit in a single zone, an outage can halt specific processes, which is especially sensitive for firms managing international supply chains with integrations between several systems. A lost connection to a cloud database can disrupt order processing, transport paperwork or data sync between Russian and Turkish units. An incident at one data centre does not mean all of a provider’s services become unavailable.
How to reduce dependence on a single provider
Review data storage architecture and recovery capabilities: backups, spreading critical services across availability zones and regular recovery testing. Decide in advance which processes must keep running during a temporary cloud outage. For international organisations, cross-border data transfer limits and storage requirements also matter, so decisions to back up data in another country must consider applicable law as well as technical reliability.
Tension around Iran: implications for trade and logistics
The situation in the Middle East remains an external risk for the Turkish economy. According to a report of 9 October, US President Donald Trump said Washington does not plan new military strikes on Iran before the congressional midterm elections on 3 November 2026, while keeping the blockade in place and insisting Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons. The statements followed reports that the Pentagon was preparing for a possible resumption of large-scale operations; US actions after 3 November remained uncertain.
Why the Iran situation affects Türkiye
Türkiye sits close to several key transport and energy routes in the region, so developments around Iran can affect trade, transport costs, energy prices and investment expectations. Oil markets are particularly sensitive: in the Aposto Gündem market summary, Brent was around $104 a barrel, up 3.79% over the trading period. Oil prices cannot be explained by a single political statement, since supply expectations, global demand and inventories also play a role. For Türkiye, a major energy importer, a long period of high oil prices can raise the energy import bill and feed into transport costs, production costs and inflation expectations.
Consequences for international supply chains
Companies shipping via the Middle East should allow for changes in routes and insurance terms, particularly for sea freight linked to the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea and nearby corridors. When risks rise, carriers may revise rates, add surcharges or reroute. Importers and exporters should agree in advance how transport costs and risks are shared, and define Incoterms, insurance and liability for delays carefully. Sanctions compliance remains just as important: firms dealing with counterparties in countries subject to international restrictions must check whether sanctions apply to specific goods, payments, banks and parties.
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia: wider regional cooperation
In October, Türkiye’s Ministry of National Defence reported discussions on providing agreed military capabilities to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca joint defence agreement. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stressed the defensive nature of the cooperation and said Türkiye does not intend to send troops for offensive operations abroad.
For business, this is mainly geopolitical context. Türkiye continues to develop ties with Gulf states, which are important partners in trade, investment, energy and infrastructure. Military cooperation should not be read as a guarantee of new commercial contracts; any economic effects will depend on further government decisions, investment programmes and sector agreements.
Turkish executives prioritise resilience
AGS Global published a survey of executives and entrepreneurs: 53.2% see preserving current conditions as their priority for 2027, and 46.8% plan their careers around keeping their present position and terms. At the same time, 63.8% believe professionals who adapt to AI will gain an advantage, and about 34% say generative AI already makes some work processes much easier.
What the results show
The survey combines two trends: managers want to limit risk and protect financial stability, yet they recognise the need for technological adaptation. Under uncertainty, companies may postpone large investments while looking for ways to make existing processes more efficient. That creates demand for solutions that cut operating costs without a major overhaul.
For foreign providers of enterprise software, automation and specialised services, Türkiye can be interesting from exactly this angle. Success will depend on demonstrating concrete economic results: how much time or money a solution saves, how fast it pays back and how hard it is to integrate with existing systems.
Gold and precious metals remain attractive
The AGS Global survey also found that 46.8% of respondents prefer gold and precious metals to preserve savings, 37.1% have revised their spending priorities and 25.7% have cut costs significantly. These results apply to a specific sample of executives and business people, not to the whole population, but they reflect financial caution.
For consumer-facing companies, this means large purchase decisions may slow down, and buyers may compare offers more carefully or favour products with clear practical value. In B2B sales, the financial case for a purchase becomes more important: suppliers of equipment, software and professional services may need to explain payback and impact on the client’s costs in more detail.
Climate risks: a strong El Niño could affect supply chains
The World Meteorological Organization has warned of a possible strengthening of El Niño. According to the digest, the phenomenon may last until February 2027, with significant changes in temperature and rainfall patterns. El Niño is linked to changes in surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and can bring droughts, heavy rainfall and shifts in agricultural conditions, with uneven effects across countries and forecasts that need regular updating.
Why this matters for business in Türkiye
Türkiye is a major agricultural producer and a participant in global food and commodity trade. Weather changes elsewhere can move world prices for grains, vegetable oils, feed and other goods, changing imported raw material costs for Turkish food producers, while agricultural exporters may see effects on yields, quality and delivery times. It cannot be claimed that a stronger El Niño will necessarily raise prices or cut harvests in Türkiye; that would require specific agro-meteorological forecasts and sector data. Businesses heavily dependent on agricultural inputs should factor climate risks into procurement and consider diversifying suppliers.
What foreign companies should reassess before the end of 2026
Early October shows that the Turkish market cannot be judged by inflation, the exchange rate or growth alone. Foreign companies need to look at financial, sector and international factors together.
Counterparty financial resilience
The fund crisis and the Bursa Knitted Fabric restructuring underline the value of financial checks. When working with Turkish companies, look at solvency, not just reputation and track record, especially when granting payment deferrals, making large advances or signing long-term contracts.
Currency structure of the business
Changes in reserves and investment portfolios are a reminder to manage currency risk. Match the currency of revenue with the currency of costs and liabilities, and for long projects model several exchange rate scenarios.
Export opportunities
The improving export climate points to better demand in Turkish producers’ main markets and may create room for industrial cooperation with foreign suppliers. Each direction still requires its own assessment of demand, competition and access to customers.
International logistics
Tension around Iran and other regional conflicts makes transport risk management more important. Allow for changes in rates, transit times and insurance terms, especially in complex international supply chains.
Technology efficiency
Cheaper AI tools and automation let companies rethink specific processes, but adoption should come with checks on quality, data security and economic value. For foreign companies in Türkiye, integration with local accounting, tax and document systems is an added factor.
Conclusion: Türkiye remains promising but more complex
October 2026 presents a mixed picture. On one side, the Turkish financial system is dealing with the fallout of the fund crisis, lower foreign portfolio values and shifts in international reserves; some industrial companies are under financial strain, and the regional political situation adds risks for trade and logistics. On the other side, Türkiye’s export climate keeps improving, industrial and technology companies are signing new contracts, and AI is opening ways to improve efficiency.
These trends do not contradict each other. An economy can show rising demand in some export segments while struggling with funding, liquidity and the cost of capital. For foreign entrepreneurs, this combination is one of the defining features of the Turkish market.
Companies considering entry should assess not only potential sales but also partners’ financial health, international payment terms, sector restrictions and the structure of operating costs. Businesses already present should regularly review financial risks, diversify suppliers and build resilient sales channels.
Türkiye remains a major production, trade and logistics hub between Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The main takeaway of October: opportunities for international business remain, but capturing them depends more and more on sound financial planning, counterparty checks and the ability to adapt.
Frequently asked questions
Will investors in the liquidated Turkish funds get their money back?
For the 17 funds of A1 Capital, Bulls and Pardus Portföy, payouts started on 8 October via Ziraat Bankası and Takasbank. For 455,578 investors of seven asset managers, a separate law is being prepared; the order of payouts and the indexation formula depend on its final wording.
Does the 55% drop in foreign fund holdings mean capital flight from Türkiye?
Not necessarily. The fall in value can reflect redemptions, asset revaluation, the lira exchange rate and fund liquidations. Without net flow data it is impossible to say how much was actual withdrawal.
What is konkordato and why should a buyer care?
Konkordato is a court-supervised debt restructuring. It is not bankruptcy, and the company can keep operating, but it is a risk signal for buyers, suppliers and creditors, especially when large advances are involved.
Should a foreign company postpone entering Türkiye?
This review makes no such recommendation. External demand for Turkish goods is improving, but decisions require counterparty checks, currency planning and contract terms that cover logistics and sanctions risks.
Source
Main source: Aposto Gündem, 9 October 2026, a Turkish daily news and analysis digest provided to the TRBW editorial team. The review uses data cited in the digest from SPK, TCMB, MKK, İSO and AGS Global, as well as statements by companies and public authorities.
Official resources for verification and updates:
- Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB)
- Capital Markets Board (SPK)
- Central Securities Depository (MKK)
- Istanbul Chamber of Industry (İSO)
- Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (TBMM)
- Public Disclosure Platform (KAP)
Information is current as of 9 October 2026. Legislative initiatives are described as proposals unless their adoption has been confirmed. Some reports and figures from the source digest have not been independently verified against primary publications. Conclusions about possible effects on businesses are editorial interpretation. This material is for information only and does not constitute individual investment, financial or legal advice.