An analytical review for foreign entrepreneurs, investors and companies that operate in Türkiye or are considering entering the Turkish market.

The second half of October 2026 was dominated by one story in Turkish business: the investment fund crisis that began in mid-September is moving from its acute phase into liquidation, repayments and criminal investigations. The state is paying out unit holders, amending the law, suspending brokers and detaining asset-management executives at the same time. For foreign investors the signal cuts both ways: the regulator is acting firmly, but confidence in the local capital market has clearly been damaged.

Against this backdrop Borsa Istanbul keeps sliding: five consecutive weekly losses, down 13% over the month, and MSCI’s decision to freeze some index changes related to Türkiye has added to the nerves. Yet large holdings are signalling confidence through share buybacks, and retailers are again filing for IPOs.

Meanwhile Ankara is redrawing its foreign-policy and trade map. The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has been sent to parliament, eastern Libya has ratified the 2019 maritime memorandum and lifted its boycott of Turkish goods, and relations with Azerbaijan are going through a rare public crisis. All of this directly affects export routes, the defence industry and construction contracts.

The external environment is not easy either: German expectations are worsening, cost-of-living protests are spreading across Europe, and Turkish exporters’ prices are up by more than a third year on year, driven mainly by energy.

No single headline tells the whole story of an economy. Below are eight themes that genuinely changed the conditions for doing business in Türkiye over these days, with an explanation of what they mean, and what they do not mean, for foreign companies.

Key points

• 65 investment funds remain in liquidation; more than 45,000 unit holders have received TRY 40.8 billion, and nine individuals have voluntarily returned about TRY 2 billion to the TMSF.
• TRY 647 billion has left the fund market since the crisis began, TRY 287 billion of it from foreign investors; the SPK suspended three brokers and asset-management executives have been detained.
• The BIST 100 lost more than 13% over the month and MSCI froze some Türkiye-related index changes, yet Sabancı is buying back shares and FLO has filed for an IPO.
• The 2027 budget counts on TRY 778.9 billion in non-tax share revenues, and spending on space and aviation will almost triple in 2027.
• The Mecca agreement, Libya’s ratification and tension with Baku are reshaping the risk map for exports, logistics and defence supplies.

1. Who pays unit holders back: liquidation, repayments and arrests

What is happening to investment funds in Türkiye?

In short: the state is liquidating troubled funds, paying unit holders what can be recovered, and demanding money back from those who profited from manipulation.

According to the Presidential Directorate of Communications, after the sixth meeting of the Fund Coordination Board (Fon Koordinasyon Kurulu) the number of funds in liquidation (tasfiye) has fallen to 65. More than 45,000 people have already received payments totalling TRY 40.8 billion.

Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek explained how recovery works. Everyone who gained from market-disrupting activity has been identified in a joint review, and the list has been passed to the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) and the Ministry of Justice. Those whose real returns exceeded TRY 10 million will be approached first. If money is not returned voluntarily, the Justice Ministry will step in. If the funds themselves lack resources, the personal assets of those who acted together will be pursued.

The mechanism is already working: nine people have transferred TRY 2,001,170,000 to the voluntary return (gönüllü iade) account at Birleşik Fon Bankası.

How much have unit holders received?

For the three asset managers whose liquidation is complete, holders of money market funds received 1.43% more than their balance, while holders of equity-heavy funds received only 58% of the unit value as of 17 September. Şimşek stressed that the 42% gap reflects the fall in share prices, not lost assets.

How was the liquidation law extended?

The General Assembly of parliament (TBMM) adopted an AK Party amendment to Article 3 of the fund liquidation bill. Sale orders submitted to the TEFAS platform on or before 17 September 2026 that could not be executed because a fund defaulted or its unit price was not announced are now also covered by the liquidation. For investors who tried to exit at the last minute this matters: their orders do not lapse but join the general liquidation queue.

Who is affected by the investigations?

Istanbul prosecutors issued detention orders for another 31 people, including executives and staff linked to Atlas Portföy, Pardus Portföy, Hedef Holding, Hedef Portföy, Alnus Yatırım, A1 Capital Portföy and Tera Portföy, as well as a former revenue controller of the Finance Ministry. Altınbaş Holding chairman İnan Altınbaş was detained, a warrant was issued for vice-chairman Nusret Altınbaş, and the assets of other family members were frozen.

The Capital Markets Board (SPK) temporarily suspended three brokerages: Alnus Yatırım Menkul Değerler, Bulls Yatırım Menkul Değerler and Pusula Yatırım Menkul Değerler.

Separately, JPMorgan Menkul Değerler said it will surrender its capital markets licence. The firm stressed this is not an exit from Türkiye: it has not carried out brokerage activity since July 2015, and the group’s banking business in the country will continue and grow. The clearing house Takasbank, responding to social media claims, clarified that it only operates the TPP money market and is neither a borrower nor a lender in it.

Why it matters for foreign business

An outflow of TRY 647 billion shows how badly the crisis has hurt trust in local collective investments. Money is moving into bank deposits. For companies this means the domestic capital market will be a more expensive and cautious source of funding in the coming months, while banks gain liquidity.

The firmness of the response, with arrests, asset freezes and forced repayments, shows the authorities want to restore confidence quickly. It also means high regulatory risk for anyone connected with the affected entities.

What companies should do

• Check whether any company or employee cash sits in Turkish funds that are in liquidation or managed by the firms named.
• Run counterparty checks: are partners, suppliers or clients linked to the holdings and brokers under investigation?
• Keep treasury balances with large banks and instruments with clear liquidity.

What investors should watch

It is important to separate what this news means from what it does not. Problems at individual asset managers do not characterise the whole Turkish fund sector. Money market fund payouts show that conservative instruments were barely hit. And legal amendments only apply once finally adopted and published in the Resmî Gazete.

2. Down 13% in a month: why insiders are still buying

How has the Turkish stock market performed?

In short: the market is under pressure with sharp daily swings, but it is still up year to date.

In the week to 16 October the BIST 100 fell 4.44% to 11,722 points, its fifth weekly loss in a row. The weekly low of 11,653 came on Friday, after index provider MSCI froze some index changes relating to Türkiye.

As of 21 October the index was down 4.47% on the week and 13.20% on the month, but still up 2.80% since the start of the year. Among the few gainers was defence group Aselsan (+0.88%), consistent with news of defence cooperation with Saudi Arabia (see section 6).

Who is buying the dip?

Sabancı Holding announced a TRY 7 billion share buyback. Members of the Sabancı family and top executives then bought shares worth TRY 237.9 million: Dilek Sabancı and Serra Sabancı about TRY 99 million each, with the chairman, CEO and CFO also buying. Goldman Sachs International raised its stake from 2.99% to 3.04%, buying 1.05 million shares at TRY 85.29 for TRY 89.3 million.

Footwear retailer FLO Mağazacılık applied to the SPK for an IPO. Capital is to rise from TRY 2.69 billion to TRY 3.2 billion, with 510 million new B-class shares offered; existing shareholders will not sell. A previous 2024 application that included a secondary sale was never completed.

Why it matters for foreign business

Insider and international bank purchases signal that large players see current prices as attractive. An IPO made only through new shares shows companies are willing to raise growth capital even in a weak market. MSCI’s decision, however, matters for index-tracking funds and may hold back passive foreign inflows.

What investors should watch

Buybacks and insider purchases do not guarantee a market turnaround. A positive year-to-date figure does not mean the pressure is over. Watch the outcome of the fund liquidation and any further MSCI decisions.

3. TRY 9.2 billion in equity, yet konkordato: what went wrong

What is konkordato and why is it back in the news?

In short: konkordato is Türkiye’s court-protected debt restructuring procedure, used by companies that have lost access to credit.

Ral Yatırım Holding, active in construction, energy and mining, filed for konkordato citing cash shortages and financing problems. Ankara’s 2nd Commercial Court granted a three-month interim period from 19 October. The holding said that after protective measures against its main shareholder, banks and brokers cut its financing. At end-June it had TRY 9.2 billion in equity and TRY 3.6 billion in bank debt.

Why it matters

The case shows a chain reaction: a shareholder’s legal problems quickly become a liquidity problem for the whole group, even with positive equity. For foreign suppliers and contractors it is a reminder that in Türkiye it pays to monitor not only a partner’s financial statements but also the legal status of its owners.

What companies should do

• Review payment terms with Turkish counterparties in construction and energy: prepayment, letters of credit, bank guarantees.
• Follow disclosures on the KAP platform for key partners.
• Remember that debt collection against a company is restricted during a konkordato moratorium.

One konkordato filing does not mean a wave of bankruptcies in the sector. It does confirm that credit for groups with complex ownership is tightening.

4. Energy up 130% in a year: why exporting from Türkiye costs more

How are Turkish export prices changing?

In short: export prices are rising fast, and energy is the main driver.

According to TÜİK, the export producer price index (YD-ÜFE) rose 2.82% month on month and 33.64% year on year in September. Manufacturing prices were up 33.45%, intermediate goods 32.87%, capital goods 20.66% and energy 130.31%.

The energy picture reflects the situation around the Strait of Hormuz: export restrictions caused by the Iran war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have lifted refining margins worldwide. The risks remain: an IRGC spokesman threatened to target seven major undersea internet cables beneath the strait if the US attacks again.

What is happening in key export markets?

Germany is losing optimism. The ZEW expectations index fell 6.6 points to 28.1 in October, below forecasts, ending five months of improvement. The Ifo institute calculated that German industrial employment fell 7.1%, or 496,000 jobs, between 2019 and 2025, with the biggest losses in automotive and suppliers (123,500), metal products (115,600) and machinery (64,500). According to the IG Metall union, Volkswagen plans to freeze pay for more than 660,000 employees at 2026 levels until 2030.

UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September, an 11-month high. France, Italy and Belgium are seeing mass protests over the cost of living and budget cuts; France has extended local curfews and Italy is sending 500 extra troops to Milan.

To the south-east, Iraq has closed its Sheyb border crossing with Iran indefinitely on the prime minister’s orders and may gradually close others.

Why it matters for foreign business

Companies using Türkiye as a production base for EU exports face an awkward mix: costs are rising faster than European demand. This applies especially to auto parts, metal products and equipment, exactly the sectors where German industry is shrinking. Protests and inflation in Europe weigh on consumer demand and therefore on orders for textiles, apparel and home goods.

On the positive side, Türkiye’s international investment position improved noticeably: according to the central bank (TCMB), the net deficit narrowed by USD 34.2 billion in August to USD 364.5 billion. External assets rose 6.1% to USD 445.2 billion, while liabilities fell 1.1% to USD 809.7 billion.

What companies should do

• Recalculate the cost base of export contracts for energy: with energy prices up 130% in a year, old calculations are out of date.
• Add price-review clauses linked to energy costs in European contracts.
• Diversify markets: the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia matter more as Germany weakens.
• For logistics via Iraq, check alternative routes if more Iranian crossings close.

Higher export prices do not mean higher export revenue, as part is absorbed by costs. And a narrower investment-position deficit is one month’s data, not a lasting trend.

5. TRY 435 billion from one levy: what the 2027 budget means for importers

How much non-tax revenue does Türkiye plan to collect?

In short: almost TRY 779 billion, more than half of it from the KKDF levy.

Under the 2027 central government budget bill, revenues from shares collected from individuals and institutions will rise 29.1% to TRY 778.9 billion, of which TRY 710.7 billion goes to general budget administrations. The largest item is TRY 435.1 billion from the Resource Utilisation Support Fund (Kaynak Kullanımı Destekleme Fonu, KKDF), a levy charged among other things on credit-financed imports and consumer loans. Treasury shares from mobile operators will bring TRY 76.7 billion, regulators TRY 34.6 billion and motor insurance shares TRY 21.2 billion. State shares from oil and mining are targeted at TRY 68.2 billion: TRY 43.2 billion from oil and TRY 25 billion from mines.

Which sectors get more money?

TRY 92.1 billion is planned for space and aviation in 2027-2029. In 2027 the programme will grow 181.7%, from TRY 8.7 billion to TRY 24.6 billion, funding aviation infrastructure and domestic space technologies; the lunar spacecraft built by TÜBİTAK UZAY, whose production and assembly are complete, is due to launch in 2027. As an illustration of the research base, the TARLA accelerator at Ankara University reported results from its first radiation-resistance test of materials for satellite cameras and electronics.

Why it matters for foreign business

Growing KKDF revenue means the state will keep using the levy as a tool; for importers buying on deferred payment it is a direct cost. The space programme opens a niche for suppliers of components, materials and testing services, usually via local partners and Turkish state bodies.

A budget bill is not an adopted budget: the figures may change during parliamentary debate.

6. Libya opens, Baku bristles: a new risk map for trade

What is the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement?

In short: a trilateral defence pact between Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia that the Turkish parliament now has to ratify.

The leaders of the three countries signed it on 7 August. The ratification bill has been submitted to the TBMM and will first go to the foreign affairs committee. Ankara is assessing what military support it could offer Saudi Arabia, which faces Houthi attacks. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has said Türkiye will not conduct offensive operations on another country’s territory. An AK Party MP told Reuters that the first phase involves sending technical specialists in air defence and electronic warfare, with a troop deployment motion going to parliament after ratification. The opposition argues the agreement was applied before parliamentary approval and fears Türkiye being drawn into the war in Yemen.

What changed with Libya?

Libya’s House of Representatives in Benghazi, close to Khalifa Haftar, ratified the maritime jurisdiction memorandum Türkiye signed with the Tripoli government in 2019 and lifted its boycott of Turkish goods. The east had previously rejected the memorandum. Greece said the document has no legal effect, and EU leaders called it void, citing the sovereign rights of Greece and Cyprus.

What is happening with Azerbaijan?

Azerbaijan banned 31 Turkish citizens from entering the country, including New Welfare Party leader Fatih Erbakan and a DEM Party MP, over their statements on the headscarf ban in Azerbaijani schools. According to Middle East Eye, Baku also asked for senior presidential adviser Oktay Saral to be dismissed. On the same day Erdoğan and Aliyev spoke by phone and pledged to take cooperation to a higher level.

Is there progress on Ukraine?

The Kremlin said Putin agreed to resume US-mediated talks with Ukraine in November; technical trilateral meetings may take place on or after 10 November in Abu Dhabi, focused on security guarantees. The sides’ positions remain far apart.

Why it matters for foreign business

Lifting the Libyan boycott opens the east of the country to Turkish exporters and contractors, and therefore to foreign companies entering Libya through Turkish partners. The Mecca agreement strengthens Turkish defence industry positions in the Gulf. Tension with Baku remains political for now, but companies working in the Türkiye-Azerbaijan-Central Asia corridor should keep an eye on it.

What companies should do

• Construction, energy and FMCG firms: assess the eastern Libyan market, bearing in mind that the EU does not recognise the maritime memorandum.
• Defence electronics and component suppliers: follow ratification and possible orders through Aselsan and other Turkish contractors.
• Those operating via Azerbaijan: prepare backup logistics options.

Ratification has not yet happened, and the lifting of the boycott by one Libyan authority does not mean a single national position.

7. One more year of building subsidies, and a deadly storm in Istanbul

Has the Yarısı Bizden programme been extended?

Yes. A presidential decree published in the Resmî Gazete extended Istanbul’s Yarısı Bizden (“We cover half”) urban transformation campaign by one year: the deadline for signing grant commitments and loan agreements moves from 31 December 2026 to 31 December 2027. Under the programme the state covers part of the cost of demolishing and rebuilding earthquake-unsafe homes.

How did the floods affect Istanbul?

Six people died after heavy rain in Istanbul, and the search for two more continues. The environment and urbanisation ministry inspected the RAMS Park stadium and an adjacent construction site after reports of landslides and found no problems.

Why it matters

Extending Yarısı Bizden supports demand for building materials, contractor services and design in Istanbul for another year. The floods are a reminder to check flood risk when choosing a warehouse, office or production site, and to confirm natural-disaster cover in leases and insurance policies.

8. USD 49 million from Tencent, and a carbon bill for exporters

Which technology news matters?

Istanbul mobile game studio Flow Games said it has raised a total of USD 49 million from Tencent, Makers Fund, Arcadia Gaming Partners and Ludus Ventures, to grow Smash Fest!, expand the team and build new games. Google launched the Gemini Prompt Arena competition for Turkish university students with a top prize of TRY 1 million; applications close on 15 November. For foreign companies this is an indicator that Turkish gaming and the pool of young AI talent continue to attract major global players.

What about tourism?

Culture and Tourism Minister Mehmet Nuri Ersoy said night museum visits rose 32% to 1,326,590. Ephesus led (501,811), followed by Galata Tower (277,557) and Hierapolis (190,910). The exchange’s tourism index rose 4.59% on 20 October. Separately, the EU has opened a Digital Services Act (DSA) investigation into Booking.com over fake listings and unlabelled advertising, which also concerns Turkish hotels selling through the platform.

What about climate risk?

According to EDGAR 2026, Türkiye’s greenhouse gas emissions rose by about 24 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2025, the second-largest absolute increase in the G20 after the US. For EU exporters this matters in connection with the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): a product’s carbon intensity is becoming part of its price.

Higher visitor numbers are a good sign for tourism, but they do not remove cost pressure on hotels and restaurants.

9. Courts, mayors, TV channels: what actually matters for business

Several processes continued that shape the general backdrop. Halk TV is under trustee (kayyum) management, and its former chairman has demanded disclosure of its finances. BirGün journalist İsmail Arı was arrested again on charges of spreading misleading information. Prosecutors requested one to three years in prison for Ekrem İmamoğlu and eight other defendants in the CHP congress case. The Milas municipality was the target of an operation with 29 people detained, and the former mayor of Bolu was sentenced to 7 years, 3 months and 15 days. The Constitutional Court rejected a request to strip the New Party of its name.

For business this is context rather than a direct factor: such processes affect how foreign investors perceive country risk and how companies serving municipalities operate. Firms with municipal contracts should factor in the risk of leadership changes and audits at the client.

What foreign companies should review

• Treasury. Where the company’s spare lira is held and how liquid those instruments are.
• Counterparties. Checks for links to holdings and brokers under investigation; monitoring KAP.
• Cost base. Recalculation for energy and price-review clauses in export contracts.
• Markets. Less dependence on Germany, more attention to Libya, the Gulf and Central Asia.
• Import financing. Factor in the KKDF levy on deferred-payment purchases.
• Operational risks. Flooding, logistics through Iraq and Azerbaijan.

Conclusion

Turkish business at the end of October 2026 is a market that is treating the aftermath of the fund crisis while widening its external opportunities. At home the state is firmly cleaning up the capital market, which temporarily raises the cost of money and investor caution. Abroad Ankara is opening new directions, Libya and a defence partnership with Riyadh, while facing a weakening Europe and expensive energy.

The main takeaway for foreign companies is practical: check liquidity and counterparties, recalculate costs, and view Türkiye’s links with the Middle East and North Africa as a growth point.

Frequently asked questions

Is it safe to hold money in Turkish investment funds now?

The problems concern specific asset managers; money market funds returned more than face value in liquidation. Before investing, check the manager and the fund’s holdings.

Is JPMorgan leaving Türkiye?

No. It is only surrendering a capital markets licence it has not used since 2015; its banking business continues.

What does the end of the Libyan boycott mean for business?

Access for Turkish goods and contractors to eastern Libya. The EU, Greece and Cyprus do not recognise the maritime memorandum.

Until when does Yarısı Bizden run?

Commitments and loan agreements can be signed until 31 December 2027.

Why are Turkish export prices rising?

Mainly because of energy: the energy component of the YD-ÜFE index rose 130.31% year on year in September.

Source

Aposto Gündem, issues of 19, 21 and 22 October 2026, citing TÜİK, TCMB, TBMM, SPK, the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, the Presidential Directorate of Communications, Resmî Gazete, Reuters, Bloomberg HT, ZEW, Ifo, ONS, UNEP and EDGAR.

Prepared on 22 October 2026 for information purposes. Conclusions are separated from facts. Legislative initiatives and the budget bill are described as of the publication date and are not provisions in force.