An analytical review for foreign entrepreneurs, investors and companies operating in Türkiye or considering entry into the Turkish market.
Mid-October 2026 sent business in Türkiye several signals that seem to pull in different directions. The stock market is trying to stabilise after a difficult September and early October, yet the BIST 100 index is still down more than 15% over the month. The state is fast-tracking the liquidation of investment funds run by three asset managers, worth TRY 40.5 billion. The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 growth forecast for the Turkish economy to 2.7%, while on the same day the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye reported an August current account surplus above market expectations.
Other developments touch day-to-day operations rather than macroeconomics. Türkiye’s Competition Board (Rekabet Kurulu) settled its labour-market investigation with Akbank, which will pay a fine of TRY 1.71 billion. In İzmir, a court rejected the restructuring request of crane manufacturer Yücelen Vinç Makine, a company with partners in 19 countries, and declared it bankrupt.
No single data point tells the full story of an economy. One month of current account surplus does not mean external imbalances are solved, and a falling stock index is not the same as a crisis in the real economy. What matters for a foreign company is how these events connect and which decisions deserve a second look: banking and investment products, hiring practices, supplier due diligence and financial planning for 2027.
This review covers six topics from mid-October that directly affect foreign business in Türkiye. Global news and domestic politics are deliberately left out.
In brief
- Liquidation of 66 funds managed by A1 Capital, Bulls and Pardus, worth TRY 40.5bn, is due to finish this week: TRY 6.4bn has been paid out and TRY 34.1bn remains across 49 funds.
- The BIST 100 closed at 12,251 points on 13 October (+0.82%) but is down 15.32% over the month and up 8.78% year to date.
- The IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye from 2.9% to 2.7% and kept 2027 at 3.6%; it sees year-end 2026 inflation at 29.9%.
- The August current account showed a USD 4.1bn surplus versus the expected USD 3.5bn, but the 12-month deficit widened to USD 42.1bn and net foreign direct investment was only USD 141m.
- Akbank will pay TRY 1.71bn in a labour-market competition case; Yücelen Vinç was declared bankrupt after its concordat request was rejected.
1. How will the A1 Capital, Bulls and Pardus fund liquidation end?
Short answer: the authorities aim to complete the liquidation of 66 investment funds of three asset managers by the end of this week, covering 45,745 investors and TRY 40.5 billion in cash and in-kind settlements.
The announcement came after the fifth meeting of the Fund Coordination Board (Fon Koordinasyon Kurulu), chaired by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz. Investors are being settled in two ways: in cash (nakdi) and through the transfer of fund assets (ayni). Last week Ziraat Bankası, the state bank appointed to run the process, paid TRY 6.4 billion to 43,643 investors in 17 funds. Settlements worth TRY 34.1 billion in the remaining 49 funds are expected to be completed this week.
How the process works
The liquidation follows the Capital Markets Board (SPK) decision of 17 September 2026, which placed 131 funds of seven asset managers into liquidation. On 30 September SPK set the order for the A1 Capital, Bulls and Pardus funds: money market funds (para piyasası) first, then the remaining funds from the largest number of investors to the smallest. Funds that were suspended but not placed into liquidation may reopen for trading once the process is complete.
For funds of other managers (Tera, Pusula, Atlas, Hedef), SPK introduced an interim payment on 1 October: investors receive their net investment, capped at TRY 1 million per fund, with the remainder paid after final settlement. SPK had earlier extended the liquidation period from three to six months.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset managers | A1 Capital, Bulls, Pardus Portföy |
| Funds in liquidation | 66 |
| Investors | 45,745 |
| Total value | TRY 40.5bn |
| Already paid (17 funds) | TRY 6.4bn to 43,643 investors |
| Remaining (49 funds) | TRY 34.1bn |
| Liquidating bank | Ziraat Bankası |
Why it matters for foreign business
For foreign companies this is mainly a question of trust in Türkiye’s collective investment market. Many businesses park spare lira liquidity in money market funds to protect working capital from inflation. September showed that even a fund with a ‘safe’ label can be frozen for weeks. A fast, state-bank-led wind-down signals that the regulator wants to prevent contagion, but the episode has already changed how risk is perceived.
What companies should do
- Check which funds and asset managers hold company cash, and avoid concentration with a single manager.
- For operating liquidity, consider deposits with large banks or funds run by major bank-owned asset managers, not just headline yield.
- If company money sits in a liquidated fund, watch for notices from your bank or broker: payments arrive through them, not directly from Ziraat Bankası.
What investors should watch
Completing the liquidation does not mean the investigation into these asset managers is over, nor does it guarantee every investor recovers the full amount invested: final payouts depend on the value realised from fund assets. Background: our article on the Borsa İstanbul fund crisis.
2. What is happening on Borsa İstanbul?
Short answer: on 13 October the BIST 100 rose 0.82% to 12,251 points, but it has lost 15.32% over the month and 1% over the week.
The session opened flat, dipped towards 12,100 in the morning, then recovered above 12,200 and closed near the day’s high on turnover of TRY 92.9 billion. The index is still up 8.78% since the start of the year.
Retail and selected industrial names outperformed: discount grocery chain BİM (BIMAS) gained 3.72%, steelmaker Kocaer Çelik (KCAER) 3.57% and petrochemicals producer Petkim (PETKM) 2.96%. The BIST Trade index (XTCRT) rose 2.37%, the Industrials index (XUSIN) fell 0.37% and the Financials index (XUMAL) was flat at +0.01%.
| Indicator | 13 Oct 2026 |
|---|---|
| BIST 100 close | 12,251 points (+0.82%) |
| Weekly change | −1.00% |
| Monthly change | −15.32% |
| Year to date | +8.78% |
| Turnover | TRY 92.9bn |
| Best sector | Trade (XTCRT), +2.37% |
Why it matters for foreign business
The 15% monthly slide coincided with the fund crisis: some holdings were sold under pressure and retail confidence weakened. For companies eyeing acquisitions or minority stakes in Turkish businesses, valuations are lower than a month ago. For those planning an IPO or equity raise in Türkiye, the window has become less favourable. The rally in retailers suggests the market is looking for firms with resilient domestic demand.
What companies should do
- When assessing listed Turkish partners, look at 3–6 month trends and fundamentals rather than daily moves.
- Structure M&A and equity deals during high volatility with price-adjustment clauses.
What investors should watch
One positive session is not a trend reversal. The key question is whether retail confidence returns once the fund liquidation is complete.
3. What does the IMF expect from the Turkish economy in 2026–2027?
Short answer: in its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut Türkiye’s 2026 growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.7% and kept the 2027 forecast at 3.6%.
This is the second downgrade this year: in April the IMF lowered its 2026 forecast from 3.4% to 2.9%. The OECD recently published similar figures — 2.7% for 2026 and 3.6% for 2027. According to Türkiye’s Ministry of Trade, the economy grew 2.5% in the first half of 2026.
| IMF forecast | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 2.7% | 3.6% |
| Average inflation | 31.2% | 26.5% |
| Year-end inflation | 29.9% | 23.7% |
| Current account deficit, % of GDP | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| Unemployment | 8.2% | 8.3% |
Why it matters for foreign business
The IMF’s year-end 2026 inflation forecast (29.9%) is above the central bank’s own projection, which was raised to 28% in August. Two percentage points may look small, but for companies with lira-denominated contracts it means supplier prices, rents and wage expectations will rise faster than official anchors suggest. Slower growth of 2.7% points to cautious domestic demand, especially in durable goods and real estate.
What companies should do
- Budget for 2027 inflation of at least 24–27% rather than the official target.
- Review indexation clauses in long-term lease, service and supply contracts.
- Plan domestic sales on the assumption of moderate growth, not a demand rebound.
What investors should watch
An IMF forecast is a scenario, not a commitment. Notably, the Fund expects growth to pick up in 2027 — an argument for investors preparing entry into Türkiye on a two-to-three-year horizon rather than a quarterly one.
4. What does the August current account surplus tell us?
Short answer: Türkiye posted a USD 4.1bn current account surplus in August 2026 against expectations of USD 3.5bn, but the 12-month deficit widened from USD 41.5bn to USD 42.1bn.
Services drove the surplus with USD 9.7bn in net inflows. August is the peak of the tourist season, when tourism and transport traditionally offset the trade gap. The balance-of-payments trade balance showed a USD 3.7bn deficit and primary income (interest, dividends, compensation) a USD 1.9bn deficit.
For comparison, the August 2025 surplus was larger at USD 5.46bn, which is why the annual deficit widened rather than narrowed. In July 2026 the current account was almost flat (a USD 36m surplus).
| Item (August 2026) | Amount |
|---|---|
| Current account | +USD 4.1bn |
| Market expectation | +USD 3.5bn |
| Services (net) | +USD 9.7bn |
| Trade balance (BoP basis) | −USD 3.7bn |
| Primary income | −USD 1.9bn |
| Direct investment (net inflow) | +USD 141m |
| Portfolio investment (net outflow) | −USD 1.034bn |
| 12-month current account deficit | USD 42.1bn |
Why it matters for foreign business
The most telling number is not the surplus but direct investment: just USD 141m of net inflow in a month, while portfolio capital left to the tune of USD 1.03bn. Foreign money flowed into Türkiye only weakly in August, and the annual deficit is financed mainly through borrowing. For a foreign company the signal is twofold: competition from other foreign investors for good assets is currently low, but the economy’s reliance on external financing keeps currency risk elevated.
What companies should do
- Account for seasonality: summer surpluses do not carry into winter, when the current account usually deteriorates.
- Tourism and transport firms can use the strong season to justify expansion, but should plan capacity across several seasons.
- Hedge lira revenues early rather than waiting for the seasonal deterioration.
What investors should watch
One month of surplus does not remove external vulnerability. A USD 42bn annual deficit remains significant, and the IMF expects it to reach 2.9% of GDP this year.
5. Exports: a record September as context
Short answer: according to Türkiye’s Ministry of Trade, exports rose 15.4% year on year to USD 26bn in September 2026, and 5.2% to USD 211bn in the first nine months.
These figures are not in the newsletter, but the external picture is incomplete without them. It was the best September on record and the second-largest month ever after December 2025 (USD 26.3bn). Rolling 12-month exports reached USD 283.7bn, already above the Medium-Term Programme target of USD 282bn for 2026. Imports rose 5.9% to USD 31.2bn in September. Exports grew in 19 of 26 sectors; the leading provinces were İstanbul, Kocaeli, İzmir, Bursa and Tekirdağ.
Why it matters for foreign business
Strong exports alongside weak domestic growth mean Turkish manufacturers are increasingly looking for buyers abroad. That gives foreign buyers leverage to negotiate long-term contracts, and confirms for companies considering production in Türkiye that the export infrastructure is working.
6. Why is Akbank paying TRY 1.71bn to the competition authority?
Short answer: Türkiye’s Competition Board (Rekabet Kurulu) closed its labour-market investigation into Akbank through settlement (uzlaşma); the bank will pay a fine of TRY 1,713,897,558.
The investigation was opened in February 2026 (Akbank disclosed it on 24 February) against a group of banks, financial institutions and other companies. It examines whether participants breached Article 4 of Competition Law No. 4054 in the labour market — cases of this kind typically involve agreements not to poach each other’s staff or to coordinate pay. Akbank announced the settlement under Board decision No. 26-30/899-383 on the KAP disclosure platform on 12 October 2026. In May, QNB Bank settled in the same investigation with a fine of around TRY 1.01bn.
Settlement under Turkish competition law lets a company acknowledge the infringement and obtain a reduced fine without waiting for a final ruling. The investigation continues for the other parties.
Why it matters for foreign business
Foreign companies in Türkiye sometimes bring practices that are tolerated elsewhere: informal agreements with partners not to hire each other’s staff, or salary data swaps within industry associations. The Turkish authority treats these as restrictions of competition, and fines run into billions of lira rather than warnings. The risk is not limited to banks: labour-market investigations in recent years have covered a range of sectors.
What companies should do
- Review contracts with partners, subcontractors and outsourcing providers for no-poach clauses not tied to a specific transaction.
- Do not share salary or hiring plans with competitors, including via HR clubs or non-anonymised industry surveys.
- Train HR staff and managers on the basics of Turkish competition law.
What investors should watch
The fine is material but not critical for a large bank. The more important signal is that labour markets have become an enforcement priority.
7. What does the Yücelen Vinç bankruptcy mean for dealing with Turkish suppliers?
Short answer: on 8 October 2026 the İzmir 1st Commercial Court rejected crane maker Yücelen Vinç Makine’s concordat (konkordato) request and declared it bankrupt; creditors have one month to file claims.
Based in Torbalı, İzmir, and founded in 2016, the company produced crane systems with lifting capacity of up to 250 tonnes and traded with partners in 19 countries, including the United States, Germany, Russia and Qatar. Its concordat process began in 2025 and ran under court supervision for about a year before ending in bankruptcy. The first creditors’ meeting is planned for January.
How konkordato works
Konkordato is Türkiye’s court-supervised debt restructuring procedure, comparable to European creditor-protection regimes. The company receives a temporary and then a definitive moratorium (mühlet), during which creditors cannot enforce claims, and proposes a repayment plan. If the plan is not approved or the court considers it unworkable, the process can end in bankruptcy (iflas). Creditors then file claims with the bankruptcy office (iflas müdürlüğü) and are paid in order of priority after assets are sold.
| Stage | What it means for a foreign creditor |
|---|---|
| Temporary moratorium (geçici mühlet) | Enforcement suspended; register your claim immediately |
| Definitive moratorium (kesin mühlet) | Vote on the repayment plan, often with a partial write-off |
| Court approval (tasdik) | The plan binds all creditors |
| Rejection and bankruptcy (iflas) | Deadline to file claims; payouts by priority after asset sales |
Why it matters for foreign business
Yücelen Vinç is a telling case: an exporter with an international client base could not restructure its debts while financing remained expensive. For a foreign buyer the risks are non-delivery, loss of advance payments and problems with equipment warranties. One bankruptcy does not define the whole machinery sector, but it is a reminder that high borrowing costs weigh on mid-sized manufacturers.
What companies should do
- Check suppliers before paying large advances: concordat proceedings are published in the Trade Registry Gazette (Ticaret Sicil Gazetesi) and court notice portals.
- Replace large advances with letters of credit or advance payment guarantees.
- If you have claims against Yücelen Vinç, file them within one month of the notice through a Turkish lawyer.
What foreign companies should reconsider
- Liquidity management. Spread spare lira across banks and asset managers; do not keep working capital with a single manager.
- 2027 budget. Assume inflation above official anchors and moderate domestic demand growth.
- HR practices. Remove standalone no-poach clauses and stop exchanging pay data with competitors.
- Supplier due diligence. Monitor key suppliers for signs of financial distress and protect advance payments.
- Currency risk. Hedge lira revenues before the seasonal deterioration in the external balance.
Conclusion
Mid-October 2026 shows the Turkish economy in transition. The financial market is going through a painful clean-up after the fund crisis, and the state wants to finish it quickly. Macroeconomic forecasts have become more cautious, but exports and tourism continue to support the external balance. Regulators are getting tougher, both in capital markets and on competition in the labour market.
For foreign business this is not a reason to leave the market but a reason to pay closer attention to detail: where cash is held, how HR contracts are worded, and how resilient Turkish suppliers are. Previous reviews: doing business in Türkiye in October 2026 and fund crisis, capital outflows and exports.
Frequently asked questions
Will investors in the liquidated funds get their money back?
Payments are under way: TRY 6.4bn has already reached investors in 17 funds, and settlements for the remaining 49 funds are due this week. Each investor’s final amount depends on the value of the fund’s assets.
What growth does the IMF expect for Türkiye?
2.7% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027, according to the October World Economic Outlook.
What inflation is expected in Türkiye at the end of 2026?
The IMF forecasts 29.9%; the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye projected 28% in August.
Why didn’t the August surplus reduce the annual deficit?
Because the August 2025 surplus (USD 5.46bn) was larger than the August 2026 surplus (USD 4.1bn), so the rolling 12-month figure worsened.
What is konkordato?
A court procedure for debt restructuring in which a company is shielded from enforcement and proposes a repayment plan to creditors. If it fails, it can end in bankruptcy.
Are no-poach agreements illegal in Türkiye?
The competition authority treats agreements between companies not to hire each other’s staff or to coordinate pay as a breach of Article 4 of Competition Law No. 4054.
Sources
- Aposto Gündem newsletter, 14 October 2026
- SPK: liquidation order for A1 Capital, Bulls and Pardus funds
- Ministry of Trade: September 2026 exports
- Bloomberg HT: Competition Board fine for Akbank
- Dünya: Yücelen Vinç bankruptcy
- Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye: balance of payments
Prepared as of 14 October 2026 for information purposes only. Editorial conclusions are separated from facts and do not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. Forecasts are stated as of the publication date and may be revised.