Türkiye’s Economic Outlook in 2025: Insights for International Entrepreneurs
Türkiye demonstrated a mixed economic performance during the 2024–2025 period. By August 2025, several key macroeconomic indicators and expert projections had been published, providing valuable insights for entrepreneurs and investors evaluating Türkiye’s market potential.
Realized Economic Performance
In the first quarter of 2025, Türkiye’s economy grew by 2.0%, according to official data. Sectoral performance varied:
- services sector: expanded by 3.4%
- industry sector: contracted by 1.8%
- agriculture sector: declined by 2.0%
Private consumption was the main driver, contributing 1.6 percentage points to growth, followed by public consumption with 0.2 percentage points. On the investment side:
- construction investments: increased by 6.9%
- machinery and equipment investments: fell by 1.8%
Net exports weighed negatively on growth, subtracting 0.6 percentage points.
Projections from Leading Institutions
IMF Forecasts
In its April 2025 report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its expectation of 2.7% GDP growth for 2025 and projected 3.2% growth for 2026. The report also forecasted average inflation of 35.9% in 2025, dropping to 22.8% in 2026.
BBVA Research Insights
BBVA Research, in its August 2025 update, sustained its forecast of 3.5% growth for 2025. This projection was supported by a tight monetary policy stance and resilient domestic demand.
Domestic Analysts
In February 2025, a strategy report by a local market analyst projected year-end growth at 3.5%, with 25% inflation and an exchange rate of 45 TRY/USD.
Foreign Investment Landscape
Sectoral Attractiveness
A UNCTAD report published in June 2025 highlighted Türkiye’s appeal across various industries such as:
- automotive
- transportation
- electronics
- machinery and equipment
- information technology
These sectors aligned with global supply chain restructuring trends, positioning Türkiye as a strategic hub.
Early-Year Challenges
UNCTAD noted sluggish foreign direct investment inflows in the first four months of 2025. While a modest recovery was expected in the second half, ongoing trade tensions were highlighted as a downside risk.
Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Indicators
Throughout 2025, the Central Bank of Türkiye (TCMB) gradually implemented interest rate cuts. Further easing was considered possible if inflation continued to decline — although this would likely weaken domestic demand.
No major volatility was expected in the exchange rate, and external and internal capital flows were anticipated to improve TCMB’s foreign exchange reserves. According to IMF forecasts, the current account deficit was projected at 1.2% of GDP.
Key Considerations for International Entrepreneurs
Risks to Watch
The Coface 2025 Country Risk Report adjusted Türkiye’s economic risk levels amid geopolitical complexities and macroeconomic shifts. Entrepreneurs are advised to closely monitor policy signals and regional developments.
Emerging Opportunities
Türkiye’s strategic location continues to offer value as global supply chains reorganize. In particular, investment potential stood out in technology-driven and capital-intensive sectors.
Financial Market Sentiment
While the first half of 2025 saw a preference for conservative investment tools such as interest-yielding deposits, the latter half was expected to draw more attention to riskier assets like equities, as rate cuts unfolded and investor sentiment shifted.
A Transitional Market with Medium-Term Promise
Based on 2025 data, Türkiye remains a market characterized by medium-term growth potential, although short-term adjustments on the macroeconomic front continue. For globally minded entrepreneurs, the country presents both challenges and returns — particularly in sectors aligned with global innovation trends.
If you are planning to do business in Türkiye and want to choose the right financial instruments or a market entry strategy, it’s worth consulting with professionals. One company that supports entrepreneurs with investment, taxation, and business adaptation to the local environment is FinLog Consulting.